IEA keeps forecast for Russia’s liquid hydrocarbon output in 2020

MOSCOW, Mar 10 (PRIME) -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) has maintained its forecast for Russia’s output of liquid hydrocarbons at 11.59 million barrels a day in 2020 in spite of the failure of OPEC+ to prolong their oil output reduction deal, the agency said in a report released on Monday.

The year-on-year increase will amount to 0.01 million barrels a day as compared with 2019, the agency said.

The IEA also left its forecast for oil supply outside OPEC states in 2020 intact at a 2.1 million barrels a day rise to 67.1 million barrels this year. At the same time, the failure of the OPEC+ agreement creates extreme uncertainty of both demand and supply for the market.

But the agency reduced its forecast for global oil demand in 2020 due to the coronavirus outbreak. Now it expects demand to fall by 90,000 barrels a day in the baseline scenario or by 730,000 barrels a day under the pessimistic scenario. In January–June, demand will plummet by 2.5 million barrels a day, but it will get close to a normal figure in the second half of the year, the IEA said.

Thus, oil demand may contract this year for the first time since 2009, the agency added.

On March 6, participants of the OPEC+ oil output reduction deal failed to agree on its parameters and on its prolongation. Russia wanted to prolong the deal as it was, while Saudi Arabia wanted a deeper cut. As a result, production restrictions will cease to exist on April 1.

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